A Limnological Reconnaissance of Lake Lanao

Hydro-Biological Assessment of Lake Lanao

By

Prof. Orlando C. Gallardo

(Paper presented to the Seminar on “Man and Environment: The Case of Lake Lanao,” August 16, 1991, Mindanao State University, Marawi City, hosted by the Department of Sociology and the Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Extension. This paper is an abridge of the work submitted by the author to the 22^nd International Post-Graduate Course as a requirement for completion of the course held in Budapest, Hungary from February to July 1991 as sponsored by the governments of Netherlands and Hungary and UNESCO. The original title of the work is “Reservoir Sizing by Transition Probabilities (RSTP) as applied to Lake Lanao Controversy).

ABSTRACT

Environmental concerns have been the subject of increasing importance in both developed and developing countries. These concerns are usually impact studies on man’s usage of environs and consequence of interference with nature. And the Republic of the Philippines, a developing country, is no exception to this trend.

This paper aims to give inputs to the decision makers and to the public in general on the controversy of operating Agus 1 HEP using Lake Lanao as its reservoir. The paper investigated three different drawdowns namely: 1.0 5 meter drawdown, 2.) 1.5 meter drawdown and 3.) 3- meter drawdown in relation to satisfying a proposed 41 MW plant loading or an 81 cms (cubic meters per second) firm flow or an equivalent annual water demand of 2500 MCM (million cubic meter) as stipulated by government regulations and NPC.

The “solution” used in this paper is by stochastic modeling or particularly, Transition Probabilities as first introduced by Moran (1959) and subsequently enhanced for practical usefulness through the efforts of Zsuffa et al (1987). The method is a computer based mathematical modeling and the software requires at least a PC/AT-286 computer.

Results showed that the utilization of the lake is optimized as a 3-meter drawdown. With this value, the lake is highly reliable to meet the said annual power demand. However, it must be emphasized that the lake’s reliability should not deter the decision makers to examine the effects of the lake level fluctuations that have affected the lives of the people and the environment in general. It is proposed that a comprehensive study on the Water Management Balance be conducted properly operate and utilize the lake not only to satisfy a given proper demand but also to consider the different water needs of the people. These needs among others are irrigation, navigation, domestic, religious, fish farming, and recreation. All of these, the author believes must be subject to the desire to preserve if possible, the natural processes of the lake’s hydrology.

I INTRODUCTION

A. LAKE LANAO – AGUS RIVER SYSTEM

Lake Lanao, the second largest freshwater resources of the country has a normal water elevation of 702 meters above sea level with a surface area about 360 sq. km. It is fed and recharged among others by five major tributary rivers namely: Bacayawan River, Gata River, Masiu River, Ramain River, and Taraka River. These rivers contributed 61% of the waters discharging from the lake (Frey, 1968). The limnological study (Frey, 1968) revealed that the deepest part of the lake is about 118 meters and the mean water depth is 60 meters. Its only outlet is the Agus River which cascades 700 meters down to Iligan Bay at a distance of only 36 km. It has a total storage capacity of 21.254 cu. Km. (21,254 MCM-million cubic meter). As compared to most parts of the country, the study area has a relatively cooler temperature with an annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures of 22.8 degree Celsius and 21.7 degree Celsius respectively. Relative humidity fluctuates from 79% to 90%. The average daily evaporation rate of the area is from 1.0 mm/day to 5.0 mm/day (Agus 1 Environmental Impact Studies, May 1989).

Undoubtedly, the Lake Lanao-Agus River system is an excellent source of energy. This fact is recognized by the early and subsequent economic planners of the country. Its importance resulted to the construction of six hydroelectric plants five of which are operational (Agus 2, Agus4, Agus 5, Agus 6, and Agus 7) while the other (Agus 1) is the subject of the controversy and is not (yet) operational.

B. AGUS 1 HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT/PLANT (HEP) CONTROVERSY

The Agus 1 HEP is an underground hydroelectric plant with a rated capacity of 2×40 MW. Its operation demands the rerouting of Lake Lanao’s water flowing from the Marawi Regulation Dam (MRD for brevity) to its power intake structure situated near the dam. The used water is led through a tunnel of about 1.3 km in length to be discharged and used by the downstream hydro plants. Construction of Agus 1 started on February 1, 1979 and was projected for completion after a period of three years. However, it was only in the late part of October 1990 (after more than a decade) that Agus1 was ready for operation. Several factors contributed to the delay and among cited were poor geologic conditions, strong water seepage, bad peace and order conditions, and labor strikes (NPC’s Memo Report for Senate Committee Mindanao Affairs, 1991 – Memo Report 1991 for short). Also, in the realization of the government’s dream to harness the Agus grid potential, the recommendation made by early studies on the river and the lake to construct the MRD at the mouth of the river was earlier completed on May 5, 1977. The dam made it possible then to develop the optimal electric power potential of the high energy stream dropped of 700 meters in a short distance of 36 km. And as Frey’s limnological study concluded (1968), a regulated or controlled release of water from the lake would create a “Stable river discharge of the cost of stability in lake level”. The study also concluded that if such dam would be constructed in the future, it would have “severe economic and sociological repercussions on the region as well as marked influences on the limnology of the lake.

After the completion of the MRD, the changing of the regime from a stable lake with an unstable river to an unstable lake with a stable river began to take its toll. Plains that were normally used for agricultural purposes were often times inundated during the rainy season. Added to this, is the wanton practice of incessant logging in watershed areas that wears out the sponge effect of forest cover during heavy rains which often times result to an unwanted rise of the lake water elevation. Authorities then quickly pointed out that flooded areas were the prohibited zones as covered in the issued order of the late Pres. Marcos (Memorandum Order No. 398. Nov. 1973 – Annex A) that prohibits the people around the lake to construct or plant crops at an elevation of 702 meters or lower. But this decree is contrary to Islamic teaching that free access to natural sources of water is a right of a Moslem community as declared by the Prophet.

The existence of an organized opposition in the realization of the Agus 1 HEP, for practical purposes did not surface during its construction years. It was only during the new dispensation after the ouster of the late Pres. Marcos (1986) that certain sectors of the society began to take another look on the different projects implemented during the strongman’s regime. Increasing availability of information on environmental issues added awareness among the people regarding the importance of environmental impact studies in man’s usage of his environs.

It was along these lines that an organized group of Muslim Professionals who are either concerned citizens or affected public, founded a group called SALAM (acronym for Save Lake Lanao Movement) on October 6, 1990. Days after it’s founding, a non-violent mass demonstration of tens of thousands marched towards the Agus 1 site to register and made known their opposition to the scheduled plant operation by NPC on same month. To make good and enforceable their claims, the group resorted to legal means by filing an injunction order prohibiting NPC to make the final wet test which was granted by judicial court. Thereafter, the waves of discontent and opposition reached national proposition that an injury was conducted by the lawmakers of the country. In sum, what was an environmental question with socio-economic implications, becomes a political question.

Among others, the SALAM group raised the following issues:

1. That the plant is defective, unsafe due to bad construction practice;

2. That the operation of Agus 1 entails more lake discharges and further drawdown by 9 meters (!) and thus

a. Mosques will be farther from the shoreline for their religious practices of washing themselves before entering their house of worship (Ablution ritual) and face possible relocation;

b. There shall be difficulty in availing water for domestic uses;

c. Lower crop production for farmers situated at the lowlands;

d. Harbor and docking facilities will have to be transferred/rebuilt to adjust to new lake level;

3. That NPC has violated government laws relevant to the operation and management of Lake Lanao;

4. That Agus 1 operation and especially the MRD will have tremendous influence on the ecology of the environs and must be stopped and removed respectively.

On the other hand, NPC’s report (Memo Report 1991) to the committee during the inquiry dismissed the issue on bad construction practice by pronouncing that the plant was designed and constructed under internationally accepted norms. With respect to lake discharge, NPC informed the public that Agus 1 operation requires only rerouting of same volume of water that flows out of the MRD and therefore the fear of more lake discharges resulting to more drawdown of lake elevation will not occur. Furthermore, the corporation revealed that “under normal condition, all Agus HEPs are not necessarily operated at their nameplate rating capacity to optimize water usage-measure of energy conservation that apportion load among plants without water spillage. Secondly, plant loading is governed by lake condition: Elevation and inflow”. It also stressed that NPC has not violated recommended minimum elevation of 697 meters or 5 meters below the 702 meters normal water elevation formulated by a task force of the government in 1971 (Annex B). Same task force also recommended that “NPC should as much as possible limit the rate of drawdown of the lake water but in no case should it more than 1.5 meters per year xxx” Annex C). To reinforce further its argument, NPC issued a schematic diagram showing beneficial effect to power load sharing structures when Agus 1 will be operational because the discharge required will be lesser (Annex D). Furthermore, NPC said that it is adopting the recommended maximum drawdown by LAVALIN International (1986) of 3 meters.

As a summary, NPC outlined the following advantages of the MRD and operation of Agus 1 HEP:

A. Advantages of the dam

1. Excess water can be stored for maximum utilization;

2. Minimize flooding around the lake;

3. Minimize flooding along the Agus River;

4. Stable water supply for Agus River user;

5. Control the minimum level of the lake;

B. Importance of Agus 1 Operation

1. Reduction of discharge from the Lake Lanao at the same Agus plants load;

2. Annual fuel savings equivalent to 771,321 barrels of diesel fuel’

3. Avoided power rate increase

II. OBJECTIVES, LIMITATIONS AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY

With all these multifarious issues on the controversy of commissioning the Agus 1 HEP, the author does not wish to provide the answers to all the questions raised nor to be like the biblical king, “Solomon the Wise” and be the judge in the formulation of an acceptable solution but rather to confront the issue only on the following questions-namely:

1. How to reliable is the lake serving as a reservoir to the power production of Agus 1 HEP if the total drawdown as recommended by a government task force should not exceed 5 meters (that is from 702 meters to 697 meters) in a given operational year?

2. Is the 1.5 meter limited drawdown difference between minimum elevation of the current year and minimum elevation of the previous year be sufficiently met? Is the recommendation of the committee realistic?

3. Is the 41 MW share load of Agus 1 HEP be realized without violating the task force recommendation?

From the questions presented, the study shall be based on the data made available by the NPC. Furthermore, existing knowledge on hydrological sciences learned from the 22^nd International Post-Graduate course on Hydrology (Feb.-July 1991, Budapest) shall be the basis of any results and conclusions that could be derived. It is wished that the use of data generously provided by the NPC would not lead to the want of objectivity of the paper because after all, it is only the NPC for over fifty years who has religiously monitored and recorded the important parameters of the lake’s hydrology. And lastly it is the author’s wish that this work will serve as a catalyst for the government to pursue a detailed study of the Lake Lanao-Agus River System and to improve the present hydrological network to collect and record the different parameters of the system and perhaps emulate the Hungarian experience.

III AVAILABLE DATA

This paper makes use of the monthly inflow data to the lake from 1948-1990 as collected by NPC. (Annex E). These inflows were mostly the contribution of the five major tributary rivers as mentioned.

The hydro-meteorology data of the Lake Lanao-Agus River System was taken from several studies conducted by the government which were quoted in the Memo Report for Senate Committee Mindanao Affairs, 1990 by NPC.

Frey’s (1968) limnological study of the lake provided a view on the behavior of the system before the construction of the MRD using data during 1932-1940 and 1948-1966 periods (data also provided by NPC). The war years interrupted the recording of data from 1941-1947. This explains partly why this paper merely used the data starting in the year 1948. Moreover, the 1948-1990 (more that 40 years time series data) is accepted in the hydrological practice.

This study does not have a time series data on evaporation. Hence, its effects were not included.

IV METHODS USED

A. MODELING IN GENERAL

One of the most widely used tool relating to the understanding of processes or system that are time dependent is modeling. It deals with the construction of structures which from some aspects to behave similarly to the real object, process or system to be simulated or modeled. It deals with the construction of structures which from some aspects to behave similarly to the real object, process or system to be simulated or modeled. Activity in this field as applied to different scientific or technological problems is so intense that new publications or research works are appearing frequently in journals especially during the last two or more decades. These models could either be physically based or mathematical. Nowadays, the trend is more on the use of the latter. Availability of computer is the major contributing factor to this trend. Another, is its flexibility in changing the parameters of the system which is wanting in a physically based model. And lastly, scale models tend to be more expensive than mathematical models. This development has enable man to base his decision on the expected outcome and thus reducing his dependence on experience and intuition.

In the field of hydrology, the use of mathematical models is gaining popularity to simulate natural hydrologic phenomena which are considered processes or systems that change with time. This usage gives the designer an insight into the behavior of the system under various conditions of planning and operation.

Basically, with respect to the degree of causality mathematical modeling can be either deterministic or stochastic. In the former, it is classified as such if the chance of occurrence of the variables involved in the process is ignored and the model is assumed to follow a definite law of certainty (e.g. hydrodynamic laws and other physical laws) but not any law on probability. Whereas in the latter, it is stochastic process if the chance of occurrence of the variables is accounted and probabilistic concept is introduced.

B. RESERVOIR SIZING

According to purpose, reservoir can be classified as single or multi-purposes reservoir. These purposes are flood control, low flow augmentation, navigation, irrigation, water supply (domestic and industrial), recreation and water power generation.

In the design of reservoir or more specifically in the determination of its yield capacity, methods that were developed can be classified into four main groups, namely:

1. Deterministic methods which use past time series of inflows and demand time series in mass curve analyses;

2. Methods of generalized empirical relationships;

3. Stochastic Modeling Method (also known as transition probabilities matrix method);

4. Methods of System Analysis, such as linear and dynamic programming.

Generally, these four methods of reservoir sizing approach the problem by finding the required capacity of the reservoir and its corresponding reliability of meeting the demand.

This paper uses the third group of reservoir sizing in the subsequent investigation of the reliability of Lake Lanao to meet the power production demand based on a firm flow of 81 cubic meters per second (cms). Specifically, the method of Transition Probabilities as developed by Istvan Zsuffa and Antal Galai of Hungary was used to provide stochastically the behavior of the Lake Lanao – Agus River System. Also, the model was used to “answer” the questions as formulated in Part II of this paper in relation to the 702-697 elevations or 5 meter drawdown elevation, the 1.5 meter limitation and its relation to power production capacity.

C. Overview of the Method of Transition Probabilities to Reservoir Sizing

This method is an offshoot of the theory formulated by Moran in his book, Theory of Storage (1959). Before computers came to widely use, to borrow the words of the publisher (Water Resources Publisher’s Foreword to Zsuffa et al.’s book), “Water storage related problems using Moran’s theory based on transition probabilities between states of stored volume of water in reservoirs have eluded significant applications.” The works of Zsuffa and Galai are important efforts in that direction.

The method as developed, is a computer-based solution of the transition matrix showing the probability of “finishing in my particular state at the end of a time period for each possible initial state at the beginning of that period” (McMahon and Mein, 1978). For particulars, readers are referred to the author’s original work.

V. STATEMENT AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS

A. On the reliability of the lake when the maximum drawdown should not exceed 5 meters (702 – 697 meters elevation)

The five meters drawdown limitation means that the reservoir capacity is about 1700 MCM. This volumetric capacity was used to determine the lake’s reliability to satisfy an estimated annual power demand of 2500 MCM based on a firm flow of 81 cms when Agus 1 HEP will be operational as defined by NPC.

RSTP model showed that at this capacity the lake is more than able to meet the power demand. Below is a summary of the results:

1. Yield functions in relation to safety in time

The results indicated that even with a capacity of about 1200 MCM the reservoir approaches a probability of safety in time of almost 100% to satisfy the defined demand.

2. Volumetric Reliability

Similar probability values were obtained with respect to volumetric reliability. As in the previous case, same power demand could be easily meet even at a louder capacity of say, 1200 MCM.

3. Behavior functions of the reservoir

The model also showed that there is a very high probability of overflow with almost no possibility of shortage.

B. On the limitation that drawdown should not exceed 1.5 meters per year.

The 1.5 meter limitation of drawdown (that is from 702-700.5), means that the reservoir capacity is about 550 MCM. With the same annual demand, the lake could not possibly meet the required power demand. The following is a summary of the RSTP’s results:

1. Yield functions in relation to safety in time

Results show that it cannot meet the power demand as defined.

2. Volumetric Reliability

Its reliability is also very poor and the reservoir is capacitated only if the demand is less that 2000 MCM. The direct consequence of which will be to lessen the annual power production.

3. Behavior functions of the reservoir

Results described the behavior of the lake having a small probability of the overflow indicating that at a higher demand of the given capacity, the lake may not be able to supply the pre-defined annual demand of 2500 MCM.

C. Three meters drawdown as recommended by a study conducted by LAVALIN International (702-699 meters elevation)

In this case, the reservoir capacity is about 1100 MCM. RSTP model is in accord with the results of the study to meet the power demand of 2500 MCM, below is a concise statement of the results:

1. Yield functions in relation to safety in time

About 90% of the time, the lake can meet the annual power demand of 2500 MCM.

2. Volumetric Reliability

With respect to volumetric reliability, the lake has a 90% probability of meeting the power demand.

Behavior functions of the reservoir indicated that it is highly capable to meet the demand. (Computer printouts of results are available in the author’s original work).

VI CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Using the RSTP model, it can be concluded that both the 5 meters and 1.5 meters drawdowns are not the values that would optimize the operation and utilization of the lake. The former is a case of over sizing and the latter is under sizing. As a possible optimum solution, the three-meter maximum drawdown recommended by LAVALIN international (1986) which NPC would adopt as an operational rule is in agreement with the RSTP model results. With this capacity, the lake can satisfactorily meet the power demand based on 81 cms firm flow or an estimated annual demand of 2500 MCM. Thus the fear of a 9-meter drawdown according to the model is a remote possibility.

However, whether the lake is a reliable reservoir at a 3-meter drawdown or not, the ultimate question lies in the effects of lake level fluctuations to the people around the lake and to the environment in general. Mori (1991) classified the following important environmental influences of dam construction on nature and society:

A. In area around dam and reservoir

1. Micro-climate change

B. At interior of reservoir

1.Water temperature change

2. Turbidity

3. Eutrophication

4. Sedimentation

C. Others

1. Influence on fish

2. Influence on wild life

It is recommended that an institutionalized lake management system be established by the government to oversee the operation and utilization of the Lake Lanao-Agus River System. Jorgensen (1990) particularized that the two most important activities of such management are: Firstly, the management of the lake water itself and secondly, the management of the whole catchment land area. Furthermore, he favored the establishment of a transition zone in relation to lake shore management with specific goals as follows:

1. Maintain the water quality of the transition zone as well as that of the lake;

2. Reduction of erosion;

3. Protection form flood;

4. Provide a buffer zone between human settlement and the lake;

5. Maintain a gene pool of plants and animals;

6. Control insect population;

7. Provide habitats for fish spawning and bird nesting;

8. Provide aesthetic support for human beings.

The establishment of this transition zone or buffer zone, however, a holistic approach is necessary. Among others, it means that in the decision making process of water resources management, individuals or different sectors of the society whose interests are affected should be part of the process. The use of multi-criteria decision method could be helpful (Bogardi and Duckstein, 1991; Ijjas, 1991).

Aside from these, Chow (1964) emphasized that the major objective of water resources development should be to maximize the national welfare or the regional welfare, as the case may be. This goal could be in the form of optimizing economic efficiency, generation of income redistribution, approach full employment, promotion and sustenance of economic growth, and achieve a certain intangible objective such as preserving wilderness area or maintain ecological balance. In the attainment of this, sometimes it is necessary to compromise with each others.

And lastly, the importance of hydraulic energy is well summarized by Yoshihiko Sasaki’s paper (Vienna, 1991) in this wise;

“The remarkable evolution of the techno-civilization in this century has been driven by expansion of the energy utilization. However, the rapid increase of energy consumption mostly supplied by fossil fuels has placed an unprecedented load on the global environment and has brought about environmental problems such as global warming, acid rain and desertification.

Meanwhile, since the oil crisis of the 1970’s, considerable amount of expense and time have been invested in development of alternative energy for oil such as solar heat and wind power. But these technologies have not been established yet, and such more research and development will still be necessary in the future. In this situation, the hydraulic energy that is renewable, clean, and carbon free, is assuming ever-increasing importance”.

REFERENCES

Zsuffa, Istvan and Antal Galai. Reservoir Sizing by Transition Probabilities. Colorado, USA; Water Resources Publications 1987.

Frey. Limnological and Reconnaissance of Lake Lanao, Marawi City, Philippines: Mindanao State University, 1968.

Chow, Ven Te. Handbook of Applied Hydrology, USA: McGraw Hill, 1964.

McMahon, Thomas A. and Russel G. Mein. Reservoir Capacity and Yield. Amsterdam: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, 1978.

McCorduck, Pamela. “Twenty Discoveries That Changed Our Lives”, Science 84 5(Nov).

Becker, A. and P. Serban. “Hydrological Models For Water Resources System Design and Operation,” World Meteorological Organization Operational Report No. 34, Geneva, 1990.

Agus 1 Environmental Impact Studies, May 1989.

NPC Memo Report for Senate Committee Mindanao Affairs, 1990

SALAM Primer, Marawi City, Philippines, 1990.

Domokos, M. “Hydrology of Reservoir”, Applied Surface Hydrology (edited by O. Starososzky), Littleton, Colorado: Water Resources Publications, 1987.

Moran, P.A.P. Theory of Storage. Methuen and Co. Ltd: London, 1959.

Mori, Hiroshi. “Environmental Influences of Dam Construction on Nature and Society”, Commission Internationale Des Grands Barrages, Vienna, 1991.

Sasaki, Yoshihiko. Reevaluation of Hydraulic Energy to Meet Global Environmental Needs”, Commission Internationale Des Grands Barrages, Vienna, 1991.

Bogardi, J., “Interactive Multiobjective Analysis Embedding the Decision Maker’s Implicit Preference Function”, Lecture Notes, VITUKI, Budapest, 1991.

Ijjas, I., Zsuzsanna Gorozdi and Istvan Abraham. “Computer Aided Decision Making Programs”, Lecture Notes, Technical University of Budapest, Hungary, 1991.

Jorgensen, S.E. and H. Loffler. Lake Shore Management, Vol. 3, International Lake Environment Committee Foundation and the United Nations Environment Programme, Japan, 1970.

REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES

Senate, Manila

SPECIAL COMMITTEE

To     :     The Senate

From :     The Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs

Subject :  Agus I Hydroelectric Plant

Date     : August 15, 1991

 Your Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs respectfully submits the following report on the result of its investigation in aid of legislation into the proposed operation of Agus I Hydroelectric Project in Marawi City.

Background

Your Special Committee was mandated by two Senate Resolutions:

(1) .S. No. 1041 filed by Senator Mamintal Tamano on December 13, 1990, “Directing the Committees on Mindanao Affairs, Justice and Human Rights, and Natural Ecology, to inquire in aid of legislation of the possible detrimental impact on the people and the environment of the operation of NAPOCOR’S Agus I and the operations of the National Power Corporation in Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte,” and

(2.) S. No. 1048 filed by Senators Aquilino Pimentel, Jr., Juan Ponce Enrile, and Jose Lina, Jr., on December 18, 1990, “Directing the Senate Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs to conduct an inquiry in aid of legislation into the National Power Corporation’s construction and projected operation of the Agus Hydroelectric Plants in Marawi City and Lanao del Sur and particularly into the complaints of Marawi residents protesting against the operation of Agus I”.

Agus I is one of a seven hydroelectric plants that National Power Corporation is constructing in Marawi City and Lanao del Sur.

The first, Agus 6, with 25 megawatts, was constructed in 1953 at the Maria Cristina Falls, Agus II was completed in 1979, Agus 7 was done in 1983, Agus 4 and 5 were finished in 1985, and Agus 3 is still under the planning and design stage.

Altogether, the Agus River Power Development will have a total capacity of 952 megawatts.

So far, the government has spent P4,527.64 million for the construction of the various Agus hydroelectric plants. For Agus I, it has already spent no less than P 1,620.53 million as of the first quarter of calendar year 1991.

The resolutions above mentioned were meant to provide an avenue for the discussion of the issue raised, primarily, by SALLAM, acronym for the Save Lake Lanao Movement. SALLAM is composed of multi-sectoral groups, which spearheaded activities aimed at stopping the construction and operation of Agus I.

 SALLAM filed suit (Case No. 327-90) with the Regional Trial Court of Lanao del Sur to enjoin the construction and operation of Agus I. It also mobilized the people of Marawi City and Lanao del Sur to stage demonstration against it.

 The demonstrations were held on October 15 and December 17, 1990, the latter attracting no less than 10,000 people in Marawi City.

 On record, among the principal oppositors to the construction and operation of Agus I are:

1. Omar Umpar of SALLAM;
2. Gov. Saidamen Pangarungan of Lanao del Sur;
3. Mayor Mahid Mutilan of Marawi City;
4. Vice Gov. Saadudin Alauya of Lanao del Sur;
5. Mayor Macadadaya Acoon;
6. Rakiin Al Macarampat, President of the Mayor’s League of Lanao del Sur;
7. Mandangan Decampong, President PICE Lanao del Sur Chapter;
8. Atty. Pacaambong Macabando of the Sultanate League;
9. Mayor Jamal Alonto
10. Faisal Hussein of the ARMM;
11. Sheik Abdulrakin Mutin of the United Sheiks of the Philippines;
12. Former Gov. Linang Mandangan of Lanao del Sur; and
13. Comilao Laguindab of Markaz Shabbab.

 SALLAM and the other oppositor groups raised the following issues against the construction and operation of Agus I:

1. Agus I suffers from construction defects, more specifically, that it is constructed

      on top of two earthquake faults, thereby endangering the people of Marawi City;

1. Agus I will deprive at least one-third of the people of Marawi of its water supply for the economic and religious use, specially with the transfer of the site of Agus I hydroelectric plant some kilometers downstream for Marawi City bridge to its present site in Bangon, Marawi City;
2. Agus I will deplete the waters of Lake Lanao to such an extent that farmers and fisher folk dependent on the lake will be deprived of their livelihood;
3. Agus I will destroy scenic spots and historic sites as well as the ancestral graves of the people. 

Hearings held

Your Committee, as directed, conducted hearings on the various issues raised on the following dates:

(1)  On January 4, 1991 at the Mindanao State University in Marawi City, with the following senators in attendance: Sens. Pimentel, Tamano, Emrile and Mercado. Several Local officials led by Gov. Saidamen Pangarungan of Lanao del Sur and Mayor Mahid Mutilan of Marawi City; NPC officials led by Mr. Ernesto Aboitiz, SALLAM leaders and thousands of concerned citizens attended.

SALLAM leaders and other oppositors aired their complaints along the lines of the issues they had raised as enumerated above.

NPC Chair Ernesto Aboitiz explained the benefits that Agus I could bring and the safety features of the hydroelectric plant.

(2)  On March 1, 1991, at the Senate Building in Manila where Senators Pimentel, Tamano and Rasul were present.

At this hearing, Sen. Pimentel emphasized that the committee has decided to conduct a thorough and impartial investigation of the issues raised by the oppositors of Agus I to try to defuse the tense situation then obtaining in Marawi.

He said that the rumors spread by NPC that the brownouts in Mindanao were caused by the action of the Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs were simply untrue. The brown-outs, he said, were caused by NPC’s inability to provide sufficient power and not because of any act of the Special Committee.

Gov. Pangarungan and Mayor testified at this hearing that tunnels have been dug through the heart of Marawi City. In fact, they said, the Marawi City Hall and the Lanao del Sur Provincial Capitol now sit on top of Agus I tunnel.

NPC representatives and witnesses also testified at this hearing.

Francisco T. Delgado, Senior Vice-President for Engineering of NPC, said that thorough feasibility studies and site investigations had been made prior to the construction of Agus I. He also underscored the fact that the same water will be utilized, at least, seven times. This means that the water to be used by Agus I will be the same water that will be utilized to operate Agus II, III, IV, V, VI and VII.

Jose Jovellanos, President of the Engineering and Development Corporation of the Philippines (EDCOP), and Querubin Cunanan, project manager, also of EDCOP clarified the issue on construction defects of Agus I, EDCOP was the company which provided consulting engineering services to NPC covering the areas of planning, design and construction of Agus I.

Jovellanos testified that although it is true that there are “minor” earthquake faults near Lake Lanao the “faults are (not) expected to present xxx problems which cannot be overcome by normal engineering and construction procedure xxx.”{l.s.n., Y.M. Catolos, pp.1-2, March 1, 1991}.

He also said that the major structures of Agus I were constructed away from the faults. He emphasized that even if the tunnel collapses “there is no danger of flooding Marawi City as it is 17 meters higher than the Lake Lanao. Furthermore, in that eventuality, the Agus I plant will automatically shut down {l.s.n, De Guzman, p.5, March 1, 1991}.

Cunanan corroborated the testimony of Jovellanos. He said that the major structures have, indeed, been constructed away from the earthquake faults. For example, he cited the tunnel that was constructed underneath Marawi City. He said that the earthquake alleged to be straddled by the tunnel is actually at the end of the tunnel. And that tunnel could withstand, at least, an intensity 8 of a Richter scale earthquake. {l.s.n., De Guzman, p.2, March I, 1991.}

(3)  On March 11, 1991, at the Senate Building in Manila. Senators Pimentel and Tamano were present at this hearing.

The following testified: Mandangan Decampong of PICE, Omar Umpar and Haroun Maruhom of SALLAM, Francisco Delgado and Manaros Boransing of NPC, and Atty. Ricardo Guevarra of the Association of Mindanao Industries.

At this hearing, there was a repetition of the issues raised by SALLAM. Delgado and Boransing justified NPC’s activities relative to Agus I. Atty. Guevarra manifested that his association planned to create a foundation whose purpose is to extend assistance to the residents of the Lake Lanao area.

It was at this hearing that a Task Force to delve into the issues more deeply was created with the consent of SALLAM and the other oppositors.

The Task Force was to be composed of nominees from the University of the Philippines College of Engineering, the Mindanao State University, NPC, SALLAM and the Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs

(4)           On March 19, 1991, at the Senate building, Manila where Senators Pimentel and Rasul; the representatives of Senators Tamano, Osmeña, Angara, Maceda, Aquino, Mercado, Enrile and Paterno; the chairman, president and three directors of NPC; and SALLAM leaders were present at this hearing.

At this hearing, the NPC nominated Engr. Alfredo Juinio, former secretary of the Department of Public Works and Highways and former dean of the UP College of Engineering and SALLAM nominated Mr. Benasing Macarambon to the Task Force.

Mr. Aboitiz testified categorically that there will be no opening of Agus I until the Committee finishes its inquiry {l.s.n., P. Mayor, P.5, March 19, 1991: as repeated in l.s.n., Buenaventura, P.1; March 19,1991.}

Atty. Omar Umpar, chairman of SALLAM, assured the Committee that SALLAM swore to uphold democratic processes and non-violent actions. {l.s.n., Buenaventura, P.5, March 19,1991.}

Because the other parties were not yet ready with their nominees, the Chair adjourned the meeting to May 6, 1991.

(5) On May 6, 1991, at the Senate Building, Manila where Senator Pimentel was present.

At this hearing, the Task Force membership was completed with the appointment extended to the following:

1. Atty. Samuel Jardin, as chairman, representing the Senate Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs;
2. Prof. Angel A. Alejandrino, as member, representing the UP College of Engineering;
3. Engr. Mama Mangorangca, as member, representing the Mindanao State University;
4. Mr. Benasing Macarambon, Jr., as member, representing SALLAM; and
5. Engr. Alfredo Juinio, representing NPC.

In addition, named to assist the Task Force were Mr. Antonio Rodriguez, Sr. Technical Staff; Rommel Tillah, Special Committee Secretary; Mr. Ali Mindalano, Special Assistant; Ms. Laura Tantoy; Mr. Andrew Gapuz; Mr.Orlando Inigo, Legislative Committee Secretary; Mr. Dominador Alavazo, Ms. Clemencia Castro, and Ms. Flordeliza Francisco, Stenographers, and Mr. Calvin Lim, Legislative Police, as members of the secretariat.

 The Task Force was mandated to:

(1)   “primarily determine the safety of the Agus I Project and assess its impact on the environment.

(2)   “hear additional statements on the ‘religious’ aspect of the Agus I project. (and)

(3)   “submit its findings within two weeks form the time its work begins.”

The Task Force was authorized to conduct “an ocular inspection on the Agus I project and (it) may repair to Cagayan de Oro City to hear witnesses and complete its investigation and report.” (Memorandum issued by the Chairman of the Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs, Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr., dated May 6, 1991)

Pursuant to its mandate, the Task Force conducted hearings on the following dates:

1. May 10, 1991 – organizational meeting;
2. May 13, 1991 – public hearing at Marawi City
3. May 14, 1991 – ocular inspection of Agus I hydroelectric plant;
4. May 15, 1991 – public hearing at Iligan City
5. May 16-17, 1991- public hearings in Cagayan de Oro City;
6. May 21-24,1991 – public hearings in Manila;
7. June 10 to August 7, 1991 – preparation and submission of report of the Task Force to the Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs.

In all, the Task Force received the testimony of 35 witnesses, which included, among others, the following:

1. From the National Power Corporation

a)     Engr. Cerael Dunggay, Asst. Vice Pres;

b)    Engr. Matthew Uy, Manager of Engineering Department;

c)     Engr. Crispin Lamayan, Manager for Systems operations;

d)    Engr. Juan Beleta, Project Manager of Agus I;

e)     Engr. Thomas Santos III, In-charge of the Eng’g Aspect for Agus I;

f)     Prof. Manaros Boransing, Director, Lake Lanao Agus River Development Project;

1. From SALLAM

a)     Atty. Omar Umpar, Chairman

b)    Mr. Haroun Maruhom, Manager III, Mindanao State University

1. From the Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers (PICE) Lanao del Sur Chapter:

a)     Engr. Mandangan Decampong, President

1. From the contractors involved in the construction of Agus I

a)     Engr. Jose Javellanos, President, Eng’g and Development Corp. of the Phils.

b)    Engr. Martin Canlas, Program Manager, PHESCO, Inc..

5. From the national government agencies:

a) Dr. Raymundo Punongbayan, Director of Philippine Institute of   Volcanology and Seismology;

                  b) Mr. Luis Sosa, Exec. Director National Water Resources Board;

                  c) Atty. Lope Reyes, Asst. Director Forest Management Bureau;

                  d) Mr. Rufino Bumasang, Dep. Director-Oca, Office of Energy Affairs,      

                  e) Ms. Linda Quiocson, Environmental Engineer, Environmental Bureau,

             DENR.

      6. From concerned local officials:

                  a) Gov. Pangarungan, Lanao del Sur

                  b) Mayor Mutilan, Marawi City

                  c) Mayor Macarampat, Mayor’s League of Lanao del Sur

      7. From the Mindanao State University

                  a) Dr. Ali Macawaris, Chairman, MSU Task Force.

Also, the Task Force pored several documents (about 58 titles) relevant to the controversy, To name some:

1. SALLAM primer;
2. LESACA report;
3. AGUS I H.E.P.
4. Environmental Impact Statement on Agus I dated May 1991;
5. Summary report NPC side on the issues;
6. Data on Notable Earthquake Information;
7. Portion of daily report on Tailrace Tunnel No.1 Feb. 25,1983 Cave-in;
8. Agus I Geologic Plan;
9. Steel Liner Bulging, Power Conduit No. 1;
10. Contracts entered into by NPC with different contractors involving Agus I;
11. Mindanao Grid Load Sharing;
12. Memo report for the Senate Committee on Mindanao Affairs regarding the NPC side on the issues;
13. MSU Task Force Policy study on Lake Lanao;
14. List of logging concessions within the Lake Lanao Agus watershed;
15. Population and number of residents of barangay units in Marawi City affected by Agus I;
16. List of water permit grantees in the province of Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte as of December 1990;
17. Monthly rainfall from 1961 to 1990; and
18. EDCOP report on Agus I to the Task Force.

On August 7, 1991, after several delays occasioned by conflicting views and the difficulties posed by financial constraints upon the members thereof, some of whom reside in Marawi City, the Task Force submitted its report.

Hereunder are the principal recommendations of the Task Force which your Special Committee on Mindanao Affairs endorses for the consideration and approval of the Senate.

Recommendations

(1) On the safety issues in general:

Considering the time and logistical constraints, the Task Force recommends that:”… it would be more pragmatic to assume without admitting, however, that the project was conceived, designed and constructed by professionals with good track records and who are just as concerned with safety. Xxx.” (Task Force Report, p.27)

Specifically, the Task Force recommends and your Special Committee agrees that – - -

a.) On alleged geologic faults:

     “The most important fault to be considered is the Mindanao Lineament due to its proximity to the present site. It is about 50 kms. South of the project. This fault trends northwest from Davao Gulf, crosses the Mindanao region and extends down to Sulu Sea. (Task Force Report, p.28)

“There is not enough information, however, on whether these faults are active or inactive so as to make definite conclusions on the safety of the structures as sited in the vicinity of these faults. xxx” (Task Force Report, p. 28)

Quoting Philvolcs director, Raymundo Punongbayan, the Task Force suggests that “xxx Some reassurances can be derived, however, xxx that the ‘closest fault that I can identify would be the Philippine fault Zone and this would be 150 kms. To the east of Lake Lanao.” (Task Force Report, p.29)

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology may, therefore, be asked to undertake seismicity of the Agus I area of responsibility on the basis of which the NPC should make any corresponding adjustments warranted by the study.

b.) On alleged substandard construction:

     The Task Force concluded that “the laboratory test results (showed) that all concrete samples passed more than the required strength of 3,000 pounds per square inch. “ (TFR, p. 30)”

c.) On alleged grouting inadequacies:

     The Task Force was not categorical on the issue, at all. It only said that the inadequacies in the grouting of the tunnel have to be verified. (TFR, p. 30)

The Commission on Audit ought to verify the records of the NPC relative to the number of the cement bags ordered and those delivered to Agus I hydroelectric project and used for grouting in the project. {TFR, p.41}.

The findings of the Commission on Audit would be relevant to the conclusions of the Task Force on seepages which are discussed in the paragraph immediately following.

d.) On the seepages issue:

     The Task Force reported that “most of the seepages must have come from the tailrace tunnels and not from the power penstocks as these are lined with steel. xxx

“What could not be ascertained was whether there were leaks from the alleged defects of the tailrace tunnels.” {TFR, p. 32}.

The Task Force failed to physically inspect the tunnels because “at the moment xxx the tunnels are flooded.” {TFR, p.32}

It looks like there is a need to determine the causes of the seepages and your Special Committee recommends that NPC conduct proper testing of its tunnels in the presence of representatives of the oppositors; make its report public and do the necessary adjustments to ensure the safety of the tunneled

(II) On the environmental and social issues—

The main thrust of SALLAM and the oppositors in their opposition to Agus I is to save “lake  (Lanao) and its resources,” (TFR, p.32). They also ask whether or not there has been or will be compliance with environmental requirements and how the NPC and other corporate beneficiaries of Agus I will manifest their social concern for the people of Marawi and Lanao del Sur?

(A.) On the water level and water discharge of Lake Lanao:

The Task Force recommends that the maximum level of the lake (be set) at Elev. 702.00 meters and the minimum level xxx at Elev. 699.5.” (TFR, p.35)

It is recommended that this be done by Executive Order of the President (TRF, p.42)

The Task Force also recommends that “overflow dikes across the two outlets of the Lake Lanao, namely, the approach channel of Agus I and the approach channel of the regulation dam. The top of the dike can be set at Elev. 699.15 meters which is the minimum operating level of Agus I). Once the level in the lake is lowered to this elevation, there will be no more water flowing to the Agus I power plant and to the Agus river.” (TFR, p.35)

“These recommendations would form the rational basis for planning, development, and  management of all related projects in the lake region.”(TFR, p.35)

The Task Force likewise recommends that “the yearly drawdown (from the Lake) shall not exceed 1.5 meters. (TFR, p.35)

“xxx The undesirable effects of most of the other issues would be minimized” if the recommendations are followed (TFR, p.35)

(B.) On the livelihood issue, the Task Force recommends:

     I.) that the irrigation needs of the farmers around Lake Lanao should be attended to, if necessary, pump facilities should be provided (TFR, p.37) by the proper government agencies; and

II.) that the National Water Council permits granted to NPC be modified so as not to preclude the reasonable use of the lake for irrigation purposes also

III.) that the water level in the “littoral zone, which xxx serves as the feeding, spawning and nursery ground of (the) fishes in the lake” (TFR, p.37) be increased.

This can be done “by limiting the drawdown of the lake to the minimum water level of Elev. 699.15 meters xxx.” (TFR, p.38)

IV.) Appropriate dams at the two outlets of Lake Lanao, namely at Agus I and at the regulation point, should be constructed to prevent further discharge of lake waters when the water level is at Elev. 699.15 meters 

(C.) On transportation, water supply and religious issues:

The Task Force suggests that with the fixing of the maximum and minimum water levels of the Lake, it should now be possible to construct “access roads, navigations channels and terminal facilities for water transportation”. (TFR, p.38)

The Task Force recommends that water supply for domestic and religious uses be provided for.

(D.) On watershed protection:

The Task Force recommends a “total ban on logging” around the Lake to protect its water shed. (TFR, p.39)

On the other environmental issues, the Task Force recommends that NPC secure the requisite environmental compliance certificate before Agus I be operated. (TFR, pp. 39-40)

(E.) On corporate social concerns:

The Task Force recommends that the NPC “exert its best efforts to improve and strengthen the relations between the National Power Corporation and the various communities in the area.” (TFR, p.43).

Further, your Special Committee recommends that the NPC should take the lead in getting support for the development projects of Marawi City from the direct beneficiaries of Agus I hydroelectric project. We have the word of the officers and members of the Association of Mindanao Industries whose member-corporations include, among others, Mabuhay Vinyl Corporation, Maria Cristina Chemical Industries Inc., National Steel Corp., PHIVEDEC Industrial Estate and Phililippine Minerals and Alloys Corp., that they are willing to share a portion of their income for the development needs of Marawi City.

By: Dr. Ali G. Macawaris & Prof. Medior P. Mamoko

Paper presented to the Seminar on “Man and Environment: The Case of Lake Lanao,” August 16,1991, Mindanao State University, Marawi City, hosted by the Department of Sociology and/the Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Extension. Dr. Ali G. Macawaris was a Professor of the College of Engineering, Mindanao State University Marawi City and served as the Chancellor of MSU Naawan before his demise. Prof. Medior Mamoko is also an Associate Professor at the same college before retiring.

Note: Figures for this article will follow.

I. INTRODUCTION

The raging controversy on the consequences of the operation of AGUS 1 hydroelectric Power Plant (AGUS 1) has been discussed on numerous occasions by interested parties. Dr. Datumanong Sarangani, Chancellor of MSU-Marawi, upon the recommendation of Dr. Cosain Derico, Vice Chancellor for Research and Extension, created on February 16, 1991 the MSU Special Task Force on Lake Lanao. The purpose of the Task Force is to study the effects of the operation of Agus 1 on the Maranaos residing around Lake Lanao and the ecology of the lake.

The twelve-member Task Force consisted of 11 faculty members and one administrative staff of the College of Engineering of which Dr. Ali G. Macawaris and Prof. Medior P. Mamoko are the, Chairman and Vice-Chairman, respectively.

Dr. Macawaris and Prof. Mamoko presented the findings of the MSU Special Task Force on Lake Lanao before the Senate Task Force on AGUS 1 Lake Lanao of the Senate Committee on Mindanao Affairs on May 21,1991 at the Philippine Senate, Manila. This article is a summary of their testimony. It dwells mostly on the technical consequences of operating Agus 1 on Lake Lanao and the recommendations to alleviate their adverse effects.

II LAKE LANAO WATERSHED AND AGUS POWER PLANTS

The Lake Lanao watershed includes Lake Lanao, about thirty rivers feeding water into the lake and the Agus River which is the only outlet of the lake. The four biggest rivers are Ramain, Taraka, Gata, and Masiu Rivers. It is shown in Fig. 1.

Lake Lanao has a surface area of 356.6 square kilometers. It is shallowest in the northern portion and becomes progressively deeper towards the south. An extensive area with depth greater than 110 meters is located at Balut Maito and Masla Islands. Its maximum depth is about 112 meters. Its volume is about 21.5 cubic kilometers and the records of maximum and minimum surface elevation are 702.92 and 698.59 meters, respectively.

The National Power Corporation (NAPOCOR) regulation dam started controlling the outflows of the lake to the Agus River in Marawi City in 1978. It consists of a 24-meter wide dam made of removable concrete blocks. During its construction about 70,000 cubic meters of river bed materials were dredged from the lake fronting the dam and the intake of Agus 1. The depth of dredged materials varies from three to five meters. The elevation of the base of the dam is about 695 meters.

The NAPOCOR plans to construct seven hydroelectric power plants along the Agus River. They are Agus I, Agus II, and Agus III, Agus IV, and Agus V, Agus VI, and Agus VII. Agus I is located near the mouth of the Agus River while Agus VII is near the terminus of the river at Iligan Bay. Agus 1 was scheduled to operate in October 1990 yet but was delayed because of the opposition of Save Lake Lanao Movement (SALLAM) against its operation. Agus III is still in the pre-construction stage. The existing power plants with their capacities are shown in Fig. 1.

Agus I Hydroelectric Power Plant is located in Amai-Pakpak, Marawi City. Its construction cost is P2, 441.7 million consisting of U.S. $30.53 million or P854.14 million from foreign sources and P 1,586.86 million from local sources.

It has two turbines of 40 MW capacity each or a total of 80 MW. Its powerhouse and turbines are located at about 97 meters below the ground level. These are constructed inside the twin pits which are open at the top. Their sides are protected by cylindrical walls made of heavily reinforced concrete. Its underground tunnels are located about 100 meters below the ground level and each is about 1.3 kilometers long. Its surge tanks were also constructed underground.

III ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL DATA

The historical data were gathered from the National Power Corporation. The analysis of the historical data shows the following:

1. The pattern of variation of monthly inflows and outflows of water from the lake is similar as shown in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3.

2. By superimposing these two figures as shown in Fig. 4, it could be easily noted that starting the year 1977 the average monthly outflows of water of Lake Lanao have always been greater than the average monthly inflows of water to the Lake. This explains why the water surface elevation has continuously decreased up to the present.

3. As shown in Fig. 5, which depicts the variation of the average monthly inflow from 1948 to 1990, there is little inflow of water to the lake during the months of January, February, March, and April. This is so because these months correspond to the dry season all over the country.

4. A graph of the average monthly elevation of Lake Lanao from 1948 to 1988 is shown in Fig. 6. The maximum and minimum elevations occurred in 1956 and 1985, respectively.

IV LAKE LANAO SURFACE ELEVATION STUDIES

The MSU Task Force used as inputs the studies on Lake Lanao by Dr. David Frey and Harza, (a foreign consulting firm), data from the National Power Corporation (NAPOCOR) and the NAPOCOR lake operation rules when Agus I is in operation. It predicted the future inflows to the lake from 1991 to 2005 which is shown in Fig. 7. Finally, computer simulation studies were conducted on the lake elevation for several scenarios of power generation of Agus I. It started first with 40 MW up to 80 MW of power generation.

The lake inflow forecast was done by means of the following steps:

a. A mass-curve analysis was used to test the consistency of the inflow records from 1978 to 1990 with respect to records from 1948 to 1977. NAPOCOR started operating the regulation dam in 1978 to 1990 records were found to be inconsistent with the earlier records.

b. The records from 1978 to 1990 were homogenized with the records from 1948 to 1977.

c. Finally, the Thomas-Fiering Stochastic Model was used to predict the inflows to the lake from 1991 to 2005.

The predicted inflows to the lake and the NAPOCOR lake operation rule when Agus I is in operation were used in the lake water surface elevation studies. The operation rules are as follows:

1. Agus I water requirement to generate one MW is 1.983 cmc.

2. The maximum allowable level of the lake is at elevation 702 m. The maximum operating level is at 701.65 m. The difference of 0.35m is allowance for wave actions, and anticipate, mitigate, and control flooding of lake.

3. The minimum operating level of the lake is at elevation 699.15 m or a maximum drawdown of 2.5 m.

4. The rate of drawdown of the water in the lake shall not be more than 1.5 meters per year.

Computer simulation studies were conducted for several power generated by Agus I ranging from 40 MW to 80 MW. Only two of them are presented here, namely:

a. To initially generate 80 MW. This means that 80 MW will be generated initially and continue to do so only when the incoming water to the lake is equal or greater that what is needed to generate 80 MW when within the range of operating level; and

b. To initially generate 40 MW. This means that 40 MW is generated initially and continue to do so when the incoming water to the lake is equal or greater than what is needed to generate 40 MW when within the range of operating levels.

Fig. 8 shows an average monthly elevation of Lake Lanao from 1992 to 2001 when Agus I initially generate 80 MW. Starting at elevation 700.95 m, the average elevation at the start of a year from 1978 to 1989. It will be determined that for the first three months of operating Agus I the elevation of the lake will abruptly decrease from 700.95 m to 699.45 m reaching the maximum allowable drawdown of 1.5 meters per year set by NAPOCOR lake operation rules. For the next nine months, the elevation will be maintained at 699.45 m. During the second year of operation, the elevation will decrease to 699.15 m in the first month reaching the minimum allowable elevation of the lake and will be maintained for the remaining eleven months and eight years. The elevation will be in its minimum allowable value of 699.15 m most of the time or 81.67% of the ten year period.

Fig. 9 shows an average monthly elevation of the lake from 1992 to year 2001 when a 40 MW power is initially generated. Starting at elevation of 700.95 m, the elevation will increase to its maximum allowable value after six months of operation. The elevation will be at its maximum value for the next six months and also during the second year of operation. After two years of operation, the elevation will vary and in 1998, there will be an abrupt decrease of elevation from 701.48 m to 699.98 m reaching an allowable drawdown of 1.5 m per year. The elevation will be near to its allowable minimum value for the last four years and it will be 699.15 m for the last four months of the year 2000 and for the first four months of the year 2001 which is the minimum allowable elevation. The elevation will be minimum for only eight months or 6.7% of the period of ten years.

V ADVERSE EFFECTS OF THE FLUCTUATION OF LAKE WATER SURFACE

The water surface fluctuation of Lake Lanao has adverse effects on the following areas;

1. Fisheries

Lowering the water level will expose the littoral zone to direct sunlight. The littoral zone is a very shallow vegetal portion of the lake. It serves as a feeding, spawning, and nursery ground for practically all the fish species of the lake. The exposure of the littoral zone to direct sunlight will result in the destruction of the eggs of fish deposited on the various kinds of vegetation found in this zone. Also, consequently the small fries will be deprived of the place where they can seek refuge against predators.

2. Agriculture

The lowering of the water level of Lake Lanao has affected badly the lowland rice fields in the surrounding areas. Firstly, the rain-fed areas are no longer producing two cropping per year. During the months of January to May, the areas are no longer suited to rice farming. This also changes the rice-farming pattern in the area. Instead of planting two rice cropping per year, the rice farmers are shifting to corn in the months of January to May, while rice is only planted during the months of June to November. This means that only one rice cropping is now done in the surrounding areas in Lake Lanao.

As a result of this, Lanao del Sur has to increase its corn production but decrease its rice production. The resulting economic gross loss by substituting rice with corn in one cropping could be computed to be P157.5 million per year.

3. Transportation System of the Lake

As a result of drawdown of the water surface of the lake, practically all the existing piers of mosques are now very far away from the shores. Also several big boulders near the shoreline become exposed. This fact compounds the difficulty of the boats in approaching the shore for the discharge of passengers and cargoes and consequently increase the labor cost for cargoes and fares of the passengers.

The four major rivers which feed water to the lake may no longer be effective as means of transportation since they are now very shallow when the water elevation is at 699.15 m. In fact, with this minimum water surface elevation, people could just wade across some of the rivers.

4. Religious Practices of Maranaos

As a result of the recession of water far away from the piers, the Muslims are inconvenienced in performing their religious obligations because they have to walk a certain distance, at many points up to 200 meters, between the lake water and the mosques to perform their ablution.

5. Domestic Water Needs

The Maranaos around the lake are using the lake water as drinking water to satisfy their health and hygiene needs. The lowering of the water level is causing them inconvenience because they have to walk a certain distance, in some cases 200 m, bathing and washing purposes.

VI. RECOMMENDATIONS

The following are the recommendations on the conditions to which Agus I may be allowed to operate and the measures intended to alleviate the conditions of people adversely affected by its operation.

1. The Creation of the Lake Lanao Development Authority is highly recommended. Its main functions are developing, conserving, preserving and monitoring the use of the lake resources. It could be coordination with the NAPOCOR establish fixed meters for the purpose of allowable minimum water surface elevation of the lake and monitoring the water surface elevation.

2. The National Power Corporation should comply with the requirements of PD 1586 otherwise known as Environmental Impact Assessment Law. The environmental impact studies shall focus on the effects of the operation of AGUS I in the lake resources and the Maranao residing around the lake.

3. The National Power Corporation may be allowed to operate Agus I provided it will initially generate 40MW of power and will generate power beyond 40 MW only when the incoming water to the lake is equal or greater to the water needed to generate 40 MW. In so doing, the present experience on power shortage because of low inflows could be experienced only for eight months in a period of ten years.

4. There should be a total logging ban in the Lake Lanao watershed. Excessive logging may accelerate the “demise” of the lake or shorten its usefulness.

5. Some Recommended Alleviation Measures. As a result of the inevitable drawdown of the water surface or recession of water from the shore the following alleviation measures are hereby recommended.

a. The operation of Agus I should not be such that it will cause abrupt lowering of the water surface. Sudden drawdown in the water surface would abruptly destroy the littoral zone, which is the feeding, spawning, and nursery ground for practically all fish species in the lake.

b. To help farmers who greatly affected by the water surface drawdown of the lake, irrigation water should be provided to their communities through the help of the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) and a portion of the cost of electricity shall be borne by NAPOCOR.

c. To help mitigate the resulting transportation problem, it is recommended that either the existing piers be condemned and new ones constructed or an extension of the new piers be made and, also to dredge the rivers at their entrance to allow the boat to move freely through the river. This may be done by the Department of Public Works and Highway (DPWH).

d. The local Utilities and Waterworks Administration should help the affected Maranao residents around the lake by providing their communities with water supply system. This is done in cooperation with the NAPOCOR.

VII. CONCLUDING REMARK

It is our fervent hope that the facts that were unearthed in the course of this Policy Study will be found informative and could contribute even in a small way towards the resolution of the on-going Lake Lanao issue.

PRESS RELEASE NO.         /2008

8 July 2008

First Mobile Service for the MRPs by Jeddah Consulate

328 Apply for new Philippine Machine Readable Passport in Tabuk

On 3-4 July 2008

__________

The Philippine Consulate General in Jeddah sent a consular mobile team to Tabuk in the northwestern region of the Kingdom on 3 – 4 July 2008 to extend consular and labor services to Filipino nationals who could not afford to travel to Jeddah due to pressure from heavy work and the cost of travel.

Area coordinator, Mr. Ahmad Espinosa in Tabuk, had earlier requested the consular mobile service for the new Machine Readable Passport, citing the difficulties facing OFWs in leaving their work and traveling to Jeddah, 1200 kilometers away.

The Consulate team was led by Consul General Ezzedin H. Tago, and included Labor Attaché Adam Musa, Welfare Officer Romeo Pablo, Mr. Amir Hussein D. Alonto, Mr. Faisal Richard A. Tamano , Mr. Ariel M. Duqueza, Mr. Camama P. Mandangan, Jr.

In Tabuk, Filipino community volunteers led by Mr. Espinosa were ready to assist the team. They had already arranged the mobile service venue and made other arrangements with Royal Tower Hotel

Everyone seemed excited to get a new passport – one that is more secure and compliant with international standards. As early as 7 a.m., Filipino nationals in Tabuk and neighboring towns started knocking at the door to file their applications. The team served received MRP applications the whole day from 8AM to 11PM, processing a total of 206 applications the first day. The process was very orderly and organized due to the invaluable assistance of the volunteers.

On the second day, another 122 applicants were processed from 8AM to 4PM. The mobile service served a total of 328 MRP applicants, and more OFWs in Tabuk and other cities said they looked forward to applying during the next mobile service in Tabuk.

On behalf of the community in Tabuk, Mr. Ahmad Espinosa thanked the Consulate for the mobile service long awaited by the community. The Philippine Consulate General in Jeddah startd receiving applications for the new MRP on 24 May 2008.

The next mobile service to Tabuk will be scheduled sometime in October 2008 after the holy month of Ramadhan. Consul General Tago also announced this to the community and during a short visit to a basketball tournament among various Filipino teams of companies in Tabuk. It was an ideal occasion for the Consul General to mention in his brief remarks the need to apply for the new passports six months before its expiry and not to wait until the passport had already expired or will soon expire. He and the consular team shortly visited the tournament late evening of Friday before returning to Jeddah.

The next mobile service for the machine readable passport will be to Jizan on 7-8 August 2008.END

* * *

By: Alim Mahid M. Mutilan, Ph.D.

(The late Alim Mahid M. Mutilan was the City Mayor when he wrote this article. He became the Governor of Lanao del Sur and the ARMM Regional Vice Governor. This is his positon paper read and presented at the public hearing on the Lake Lanao-Agus River Hydroelectric Projects of the National Power Corporation conducted by the Senate Committee on Mindanao Affairs held at the MSU Gym, Marawi City on January 4, 1991).

At the outset, I wish to thank the distinguished senators and other members of their party for their extraordinary concern for their brother Meranao Muslims who inhabit the communities around the lake. Their coming to this still depressed and neglected region of the country is a clear indication of that concern.

Collegues in the government service, and fellow brothers and sisters in the City of Marawi and the province of Lanao del Sur, let us not forget the fact that if the Muslim Filipinos have continued to be a problem to the Philippine government, it is not because something is wrong with their personal chemistry as individuals, it is not because their culture is flawed, and it is not because their cherished religion – Islam – is against progress, development or modernization, but because of the despicable conditions that have characterized their lives as they got incorporated into the Philippine body politic in this country.

Why were the majority of the Moros during the pre-independence period pro-American or anti-Filipino? Or why did hundreds of Moro leaders like the late Abdul Kamid Bogabong and Datu Amai Manabilang of Lanao oppose the inclusion of Mindanao, Sulu and Palawan region to the present Republic of the Philippines as manifested in their famous 1935 Dansalan Declaration which they sent to the President of the United States and the U.S. Congress? The Moro leaders did so not because of an inherent dislike for their brother Christian Filipinos, but because of the various government policies and programs involving MINSUPALA that had led to their political inferiorization or minoritization; economic marginalization and destitution; the inroads on the various aspects of their identity such as their homeland, religion and culture; and the series of threats to their individual and collective security which became so acute beginning in the 1960s.Our great Moro leaders were not against sharing the bounties of MINSUPALA with their Christian brothers from the North, but they were awed by the brutal reality of their being economically squeezed out in their homeland, i.e., how they were deprived of the opportunity and the capability to be actively involved in the fast rolling wheel of commerce and industry in Mindanao.

I think there is no exaggeration in saying that policy formulation and implementation for the MINSUPALA in the past several decades not only left out the Muslim Filipinos but even victimized them.

The continuing failure of the national government to address the sordid conditions of the Muslim Filipinos is responsible for the high degree of alienation of the great majority of them from the national government. To many of them, the Philippine government is the principal party to blame for the current harsh conditions and the only institution that has the capability to fully address their legitimate grievances.

The people of the Lake have been mistakenly accused of being opposed to development—to the utilization and exploitation of the of the Lake and the Agus River. I wish to emphasize that  we are not against development. As Muslims, we are fro progress and for the constructive utilization of natural resources. However, our concept of development is comprehensive and embrasive. It concerns all aspects of creation. It is not limited to one part of creation to the detriment and destruction of another. It is for this reason that we are opposing the unregulated exploitation of the Lake in the guise of development.

THE IMPORTANCE OF LAKE LANAO TO THE MERANAOS

The value of the Lake Lanao to us is certainly immeasurable. Perhaps, it is only next to Islam as our most cherished treasure in life.

We have enjoyed the gift of an invigorating climate throughout history because of the Lake Lanao. We have survived as a people with distinct civilization mainly because of God’s bounties found in the lake. It is because of Lake Lanao that we have sustained human habitations in this part of the country enjoying a decent livelihood. To say that the lake is a source of life for the Meranaos is not an exaggeration. This is because Lake Lanao is a major factor in the evolution of our peculiar heritage as a distinct people in Philippine society. Dr. Sarangani, in his Welcome Address during the recent Three-day Multi-sectoral Conference about Lake Lanao, was right in saying that the Lake is the “nucleus of the Meranaos’ social psyche for the name Meranao is rooted in the term ranao, the vernacular name of Lake Lanao.”

THE DESTRUCTION CAUSED BY THE REGULATION DAM

Since the construction in 1973 of the Regulation Dam at the mouth of the Agus River, there was the concomitant lowering of the water level of the lake and its tremendous and unregulated degree of fluctuation. As a consequence, the people of the lake suffered and the following effects became apparent:
a.    Vast tract of productive lowland agricultural areas have dried up resulting in the economic displacement of many farmers.
b.    The access of the different mosques and communities along the shore of Lake Lanao to water supply readily provided by the lake had been adversely affected. This can be thoroughly appreciated by knowing the number of communities affected and the number of people using these mosques.
c.    The drying up of the littoral zones which serve as the breeding places and source of food for fishes. This resulted in the extinction of at least 23 species of fish in the lake and the reduction of the population of the species that have survived. The habitat of other wild animal species had been affected which resulted in their extinction or migration. These in turn resulted in the economic displacement of many fishermen.
d.    Because the elevation of the lowland areas is only very slightly above the original level of Lake Lanao, the lowering of the level of the lake also lowered the level of the waters of its four major tributaries. This adversely affected the use of the four major rivers for transportation purposes. Again, this can be better appreciated by knowing the number of communities affected and the number of populations therein, and also the number of motor vehicles affected.
e.    The piers or pier-like structures of some communities along the shores of the lake became distant form the lakeshores.
f.    With the lowering of the level of the lake, its surface area which ordinarily determine the amount of evaporation from the lake is thereby reduced. This affects the amount of rainful within the localities aroud Lake Lanao which eventually affect the climate of the region.
g.    The natural beauty of the Lanao region which is anchored on the lake is also destroyed. In effect, this destroys the tourism potentials of the region.

RECOMMENDATIONS:
1.    Water supply systems have to be installed in the different mosques and communities whose water supply have been adversely affected;
2.    Credit assistance in the form of loans and economic support programs like manpower training programs should be extended to individuals families affected;
3.    Scholarship programs should also be extended to deserving children of affected families;
4.    All industries using electric power from the Agus River Hydroelectric Plants should adopt a quota system of employment in favor of the Meranao;
5.    A minimum consumption of electric power shall be given free to every Meranao family;
6.    A percentage of the net income of the NPC from the Agus River Hydroelectric Plants shall be given to the City of Marawi and the Province of Lanao del Sur in appropriate cases;
7.    NPC should pay taxes to the City of Marawi and the Province of Lanao del Sur;
8.    The lowland agricultural areas should be irrigated;
9.    The rivers supplying waters to the lake and the watershed areas should be rehabilitated;
10.    Piers in the different communities along the shores of Lanao should be constructed and those already constructed have to be reimbursed by the NPC;
11.    Reparations in favor of farmers and fishermen who were displaced should be paid;
12.    Creation by legislation of a Lake Lanao Development and Rehabilitation Council which will oversee the preservation, utilization and regulated exploitation of the Lake Lanao Agus River System; and
13.    Ensuring the safety of the regulation dam, considering among others, its economic life. It is noteworthy that the failure and/or destruction of the dam will result in the instant drying up the lake.

These recommendations pertain to the adverse effect of the construction of the regulation dam in 1973 regardless of the Agus 1 project.

THE AGUS I PROJECT

Regarding the issue on the Agus 1 Hydroelectric Plant, I wish to emphasize the following reasons why we are categorically opposed to its opening if it inflict further irreparable damages:
1.We understand that we are exposed to a bitter and grave danger with the construction of the plant. This is the reason why we are pushing for the investigation by experts of whether or not the construction was done according to specifications and whether or not.

2. The construction of the plant was done without prior consultation with the people. As such we have been deprived of the historical site of kota (fort) Marawi, the fortress where Datu Akadir Akobar and his muhahideen defended Marawi from the Spaniards in 1891 and 1895. We have also been deprived of one of the best sport grounds in Mindanao where national sport competition were ionce held in the 1950s and the 1960s.

3. The construction of the Agus 1 plant has deprived Marawi City of the natural beauty of Lake Lanao and Agus River. Such deprivation and destruction of the beauty of the lake and the rivers destroy the potentials of the area as tourist spot in Mindanao.

4. If the Agus 1 Plant will be opened, it will have a tremendous destructive effect upon one-half of the city residents who depend upon the Agus River for water supply. Thus, such opening will create an acute water supply in the city.

5. Once the Agus 1 Plant will be made operational, a very small amount of water will remain to pass through the Agus River. This will not only deprive city residents of the use of the Agus River but the latter will susceptible to pollution and contamination through the wastes and dirts that are thrown to the river. In effect, this will cause heath problems to the city residents.

6. We will be further deprived of the marine resources of the Agus River. Hence, fishermen dependent on the Agus River for livelihood will be economically displaced.

7. Mosques built along the Agus River will also be deprived of the water supply provided for by the river.

8. Finally, because of the dislocations associated with the NPC projects, there is reason to believe that Moro insurgency will be further intensified.

CONCLUSION

Given the adverse effects of the NPC projects to the lives of the Meranaos, the failure of the government to address fully their concern about the projects will most likely intensify their alienation from the national government in its peace making efforts in Mindanao. But I am assuring our brother senators that the present leadership in the Muslim areas will exert their utmost efforts to help the present national leadership in solving the problems confronting the Muslims areas. I believe it is our obligation at the local level to convey to our superiors at the national level the real problems and needs of
our constituents. With the demonstrated commitment of our brother senators to the interest of all Filipinos, Christians and Muslims alike, there is every reason to expect that the national government will help us save, preserve our survival as an integral part of the Philippine body politic.